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Epidemic model predictor

Introduction:

This project serves as a tool for medical professionals, who can use it to determine the rate of growth of a disease, say an epidemic.

A disease model is a mathematical representation of the spread of an infectious disease. It can be used to understand how a disease spreads, predict the number of people who will be infected, and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions like vaccination.

It optionally accepts parameters such as population (young and old percentages), birth rate and death rate as population variables. It receives disease input such as rate of infection, recovery rate and incubation period for the vaccine.

Terms used in the program

Population variables:

Total population Pop

Younger and older population Pop1, Pop2

Adult population Pop2 := Pop - Pop1

Birth rate birthRate

Death rate deathRate

Population growth PopGrowth

Disease variables:

Number of infected people on day 1 Inf

Transmission rate transRate

Recovery rate recRate

Contact rate contRate

Incubation period incubPrd

Number of days after being infected when people isolate themselves n

Vaccination variables:

Number of days after the first attack when the vaccine takes effect d

Efficiency of the vaccine η

Rate of vaccination (Rv) ρ

Formulae

Infected population after $n$ days =  $(Inf_d)$ - $(Rec_d)$
No of days for complete recovery: $(Inf_d)$ := $(Rec_d)$

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