A simple SEIR model framework for predicting COVID-19 transmission.

All required packages are list in environment.yml which is available from Anaconda. Install with command on CMD or terminal:

conda env create -f environment.yml

• SEIR_simplex.ipynb Train an SEIR model by simplex algorithm (Nelder-Mead) and run prediction for future days (Recommended)

• SEIR_MCMC.ipynb Train an SEIR model with MCMC algorithm and run prediction for future days.

• SIR_simplex.ipynb Train an SIR model by simplex algorithm (Nelder-Mead) and run prediction for future days (not Recommended)

• ./data Contains COVID-19 data, including confirmed, cure and death, which are data for training model. Sample data in this repository are from "COVID-19 Data Repository by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University" https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19.

This repository is licensed under the GNU General Public License (GPL).