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Project Title: Bitcoin Price Prediction using On-Chain Analytics and Machine Learning Models

Introduction

Cryptocurrency is a type of digital currency that utilizes encryption and a decentralized system to validate transactions and maintain records, eliminating the need for a central authority. The cryptocurrency market has grown significantly since its inception in 2008, with over 20,000 cryptocurrencies and a total market capitalization of over $850 billion as of December 2022. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Tether (USDT) are some of the most popular cryptocurrencies based on their prices and market demand.

While cryptocurrencies share some similarities with stocks, their unique features, characteristics, and structures make them distinct. As a result, analyzing cryptocurrencies using traditional stock market methods may not be entirely accurate. On-Chain analysis has emerged as the preferred approach for understanding and predicting cryptocurrency market behavior. On-Chain metrics involve examining transaction data on a specific blockchain network that is publicly accessible. On-Chain analytics is a field of study that analyzes transaction activity and the utility of cryptocurrency and blockchain data. It provides valuable insights into the cryptocurrency market and complements traditional analysis methods.

In this project, we have implemented four machine learning models, namely LSTM, GRU, RNN, and CNN, to predict the price of Bitcoin. Additionally, we have conducted research on various On-Chain data and investigated correlations to determine which data variables are better suited for Bitcoin price prediction. We aim to compare the predictive performance of On-Chain data against traditional price data using our machine learning models.

Project Background

Techniques, Tools, and Technologies

  • Machine Learning Models: LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit), RNN (Recurrent Neural Network), and CNN (Convolutional Neural Network). These models have been widely used in time series forecasting tasks and are suitable for analyzing cryptocurrency price data.
  • On-Chain Analysis: Leveraging On-Chain metrics to gain insights into transaction activity and utility of cryptocurrencies. On-Chain analytics allows us to examine the behavior and patterns within the Bitcoin blockchain network.
  • Python: The programming language used for implementing the machine learning models and data analysis tasks.
  • Deep Learning Libraries: TensorFlow, Keras, or PyTorch, which provide powerful tools and frameworks for building and training neural network models.
  • Data Collection: Gathering historical Bitcoin price data and On-Chain data from reliable sources or APIs.
  • Data Preprocessing: Cleaning and preparing the collected data for model training and analysis. This step may involve handling missing values, normalizing data, and splitting the dataset into training and testing sets.
  • Evaluation Metrics: Utilizing appropriate metrics such as mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), or root mean squared error (RMSE) to assess the performance of the machine learning models.
  • Visualization: Visualizing the results, trends, and patterns using libraries such as Matplotlib or Seaborn.

Problem Statement

The main problem we aim to address is predicting the price of Bitcoin using On-Chain analytics and machine learning models. Specifically, we want to determine whether incorporating On-Chain data into the predictive models enhances the accuracy and reliability of Bitcoin price predictions compared to using only traditional price data.

Assumptions, Constraints, and Requirements

  • We assume that historical Bitcoin price data and relevant On-Chain data are available for analysis.
  • The accuracy of the price predictions depends on the quality and reliability of the data sources.
  • The machine learning models may require a significant amount of computational resources and time for training and optimization.
  • The performance of the models may be influenced by factors such as market volatility, regulatory changes, and external events impacting the cryptocurrency market.
  • The project requires a solid understanding of machine learning algorithms, deep learning concepts, and cryptocurrency

fundamentals.

Proposed Solution Approach

Our solution approach involves the following steps:

  1. Data Collection: Gather historical Bitcoin price data and relevant On-Chain data from reliable sources or APIs.
  2. Data Preprocessing: Clean and preprocess the collected data, handling missing values, normalizing data, and splitting the dataset into training and testing sets.
  3. Feature Selection: Analyze the available On-Chain data variables and select the most relevant features for Bitcoin price prediction.
  4. Model Implementation: Implement LSTM, GRU, RNN, and CNN machine learning models using Python and deep learning libraries such as TensorFlow, Keras, or PyTorch.
  5. Model Training: Train the models using the prepared dataset, experimenting with different hyperparameters and architectures to optimize performance.
  6. Model Evaluation: Evaluate the trained models using appropriate evaluation metrics and compare their performance using both traditional price data and On-Chain data.
  7. Result Analysis: Analyze and interpret the results to determine the effectiveness of incorporating On-Chain data in Bitcoin price prediction.
  8. Visualization: Visualize the predicted prices, patterns, and trends using suitable visualization libraries.
  9. Documentation: Document the research findings, methodology, implementation details, and evaluation results.

Project Progress

We have made significant progress in the project:

  • Collected historical Bitcoin price data and On-Chain data from reliable sources.
  • Conducted initial data preprocessing, including handling missing values and normalizing the data.
  • Explored different On-Chain data variables and their correlations with Bitcoin price.
  • Implemented the LSTM, GRU, RNN, and CNN models using Python and the chosen deep learning framework.
  • Trained and optimized the models using the prepared dataset, experimenting with various hyperparameters and architectures.
  • Evaluated the models' performance using traditional price data and compared it with the incorporation of On-Chain data.
  • Visualized the predicted prices, patterns, and trends using appropriate libraries.
  • Conducted preliminary result analysis and interpretation.

Comparison with Existing Methods and Projects

We will compare our approach and results with existing methods and projects that focus on Bitcoin price prediction using machine learning models. By incorporating On-Chain data, we aim to assess the improvement in prediction accuracy and reliability compared to methods relying solely on traditional price data.

Summary and Future Work

In this project, we have explored the prediction of Bitcoin prices using machine learning models and On-Chain analytics. Our initial findings suggest that incorporating On-Chain data can potentially enhance the accuracy and reliability of price predictions compared to using only traditional price data. Further analysis and evaluation are required to solidify these findings.

For future work, we propose the following:

  • Refining the existing machine learning models and exploring other advanced models to improve prediction performance.
  • Gathering additional On-Chain data and investigating its correlations with Bitcoin price.
  • Exploring other cryptocurrencies and assessing the effectiveness of On-Chain analytics in their price prediction.
  • Conducting more extensive experiments, including longer time periods and testing the models in different market conditions.
  • Incorporating external factors such as market sentiment, news sentiment, and macroeconomic indicators to enhance prediction accuracy.
  • Collaborating with domain experts and researchers to gain further insights into the cryptocurrency market and refine the predictive models.

By continuing this research and further developing the proposed methods, we aim to contribute to the understanding and advancement of cryptocurrency price prediction, enabling individuals and organizations to make more informed decisions in this evolving market.

-senior_project-bitcoin-price-prediction-via-on-chain-anlaytics's People

Contributors

cerenyildizdogan avatar furkankeremselimoglu avatar yigitdemirsan avatar

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