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《Skilful precipitation nowcasting using deep generative models of radar》论文复现


论文摘要

论文提出了一个深度生成模型,用于雷达降水的概率即时预报,来解决现有方法中存在的难以捕捉重要的非线性事件,例如对流起始,以及在较长的提前时间内产生的即时预报比较模糊,只能准确预测低强度降雨等问题,该模型可以对最大1536公里 $\times$ 1280公里的区域生成逼真、时空一致的预测,预报时间提前5-90分钟。经定量验证,该模型即时预报的效果较现有方法更好,无需模糊处理。论文表明生成式即时预报可以提供概率预测,从而提高预报价值并支持操作效用,并且在分辨率和提前期比现有方法更胜一筹。


数据集

UK dataset

使用来自英国气象局 RadarNet4 网络的一系列雷达合成图像

数据集访问


模型架构

这个即时预测模型是一个使用两个 Discriminators 和一个附加 Regularization 进行训练的 Generator

Generator架构

pkd7NKP.png

Temporal Discriminator架构

pkd7ab8.png

Spatial Discriminator架构

pkd70Ug.png


依赖库

  • dask == 2022.9.1
  • matplotlib == 3.5.1
  • numba == 0.55.1
  • numpy == 1.21.0
  • pandas == 1.4.1
  • properscoring == 0.1
  • pytorch-lightning == 1.5.10
  • torchvision == 0.11.3
  • pytorch

工作流程

pkd7B5Q.png


实验结果

对于模型DGMR, PySTEPS, UNet, Axial attention,在 $T + 30, T+60$$T + 90$ 的未来时间的预测对比

pkd7rCj.png

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