Topic: Trade deflection on Chinese exports of photovoltaic modules and key components as a reaction to the European Union’s 2013 anti-dumping duties

Institution: Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Chair of International Finance (FB 03)

This paper empirically examines the effect of trade deflection, an effect that describes the rerouting of exports to alternative markets caused by a trade barrier (Bown and Crowley, 2007), in the case of the European Union’s 2013 anti-dumping duties on Chinese manufactured photovoltaic modules and related components. To answer the question if Chinese exports to other countries increased as a reaction to the European anti-dumping regulations I examined Chinese export data from 2006 to 2015 on a six digit HS level for photovoltaic modules with methods of descriptive statistics and interferential statistics based on the gravity model for bilateral trade flows described by Tinbergen (1962). The results of my research suggest that there is a strong indication for a trade deflecting effect caused by the European Union’s antidumping regulation with a highly statistical significant average increase ranging between +147,81% to +258,02% of Chinese exports for affected HS categories to alternative markets.

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