Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Simulation – Brainstorm & Analyze Data

The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center generates forecasts of streamflow from snow melt in Western Colorado. These predictions are used by reservoir managers in the Colorado Basin to decide on appropriate allocations to water users. Many crop producers in the area are particularly dependent on these allocations because their crops depend, primarily, on irrigation. Planting decisions (which crops and how much to plant) must be made at critical parts of the year, and they can’t change their mind on this. We are interested in quantifying the value of forecast improvements to farmers in this area. Using farming enterprise budget models and crop production curves we would like to simulate revenue outcomes under a hypothetical set of forecasts with various skills and compare them with revenues based on historical stream flows. While we have historical forecasted and observed streamflow data, this task will require significant brainstorming on how to simulate forecasts with various levels of predictive skill. We are looking for folks with interest in the simulation of hydrologic datasets, forecasting, farming, or in brainstorming how to best quantify the value of information.