Augur is a DESC forecasting and inference validation tool. The name comes from the official diviners in ancient Rome whose function was to divine whether the gods approved of a proposed undertaking by observing the behavior of birds. Firecrown is the bird species of choice in DESC.
Augur is a wrapper to firecrown that generates synthetic datasets of abitrary complexity and then calls inference engine to either generate full MCMC or a simple second-order derivative at fiducal model to generate a Fisher matrix forecast.
As always, you can force installation through pip like
pip install augur/
or actually inside the augur directory running
python setup.py install
This step-by-step installaion shows you how to get a working environment with firecrown
and augur
that you can hack away efficiently.
Start by creating a new anaconda environment:
conda create --name forecasting
conda activate forecasting
Next install firecrown and augur. First, let's clean any conda-installed firecrown (skip this if no previous firecrown around)
conda uninstall firecrown --force
Install firecrown dependencies only using:
conda install --only-deps firecrown
Install a repo version of firecrown:
git clone [email protected]:LSSTDESC/firecrown.git
cd firecrown
pip install --no-deps -e .
Now run a pytest
to see if things work.
Next repeat the same with augur
but checkout the dev
branch:
git clone [email protected]:LSSTDESC/augur.git
cd augur
pip install --no-deps -e .
and also test it with pytest
.
You are now ready to try a simple forecast as outlined in the next section.
Usage generally follows the firecrown conventions. The input yaml file has three sections corresponding to three steps of a typical forecasting process
generate
contains instructions for generating syntehtic datasetsanalyze
contains instructions for running firecrown using the dasets just generatespostprocess
contains instructions for post-processing any data, making plots, latex tables, etc [not implemented yet]
To run something try:
augur examples/srd_y1_3x2.yaml -v
The output will be in
output/fisher.txt