learn-co-curriculum / dsc-law-of-total-probability Goto Github PK

Link to Canvas

https://learning.flatironschool.com/courses/5316/pages/partitioning-and-the-law-of-total-probability?module_item_id=408287

Issue Subtype

• Master branch code
• Solution branch code
• Code tests
• Layout/rendering issue
• Instructions unclear
• Other (explain below)

Describe the Issue

Source

Conditional independence given  DOES NOT imply unconditional independence
Consider playing a series of 5 games against a chess opponent of unknown strength. Winning all five games would give you a good idea that you are a better player. So winning each successive game is actually providing us with information about the strength of our opponent. If you have prior knowledge about the strength of your opponent, you condition on the strength of our opponent i.e. winning one game would not provide us with any additional information on the probability of winning the next. Having no prior knowledge of your opponent and winning a string a games will give you information about the probability of winning the next game.

The games are conditionally independent given the strength of our opponent, but not independent unconditionally.

Concern

This paragraph is very poorly written and very hard to understand.
I had my husband who is a high school professor read it and he also couldn't understand from the english standpoint.

(Optional) Proposed Solution

Unfortunately I cannot understand what the paragraph is trying to explain but for sure the switching between you and "us" or "ours" is not helpful, as well as switching the order of terms, like "conditional independence" and "independent unconditionally".
It would also be very helpful if the verb "condition" could be explained, like when it is used in this sentence "you condition on the strength of our opponent", does condition mean changing the outcome or it means drawing conclusions about the possible outcome?

What OS Are You Using?

• OS X
• Windows
• WSL
• Linux
• IllumiDesk

Any Additional Context?