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fmax's Introduction

A simple tool for forecasting maximums/minimums of time series.

Please cite as Jaime Sevilla, Jonathan Lindbloom. A Bayesian model of records. Authorea. May 28, 2022.

An article explaining the model we use and applications is available online.

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fmax's Issues

General handling of attempt distributions, or no?

@Jsevillamol I am going to do an overhaul of this library this weekend. My goal is to convert to PyMC v4 and have a docs page up and running with some examples.

My biggest question is, what do you think about changing our handling of the attempt distribution to allow for a general choice by the user? Currently, we limit to just a handful of distributions, but in principle I don't see why we can't construct the Max/Min distributions as a function of an input attempt distribution.

I would also like to figure out a way to expose the PyMC model so that the user can specify the prior directly, without needing to be constrained by our interface of passing in a dictionary of parameters of some pre-defined prior that we have chosen.

Any thoughts?

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