This world cup simulator makes some simple assumptions about the FIFA world ranking total points to calculate the probabilities of an outcome between two teams meeting.
The rankings and points are taken from here, and are provided in the appropriate csv for the 2018 world cup in Russia. http://www.fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/ranking-table/men/index.html
Put simply, the chances of a team to win is calculated using the largest gap between FIFA points (1080 gap between Germany and Saudi Arabia), and my perception of what Saudi's chances are.
I decided that, should Germany play Saudi Arabia 100 times, Saudi would win once, and draw twice. Furthermore, I decided that two teams meeting with no difference in rankings at a neutral venue would have an equal chance of winning. From 100 games, there would be 30 draws, and 35 wins each. Using a linear expression, the win conditions from equal ranking delta to extreme ranking delta is then derived. When draws are not allowed, the equal outcome would be 50:50, and the heavily skewed would be 1.5:98.5. A similar approach is then employed for the goals scored. For teams with equal delta, it is assumed the most likely outcome is 2 goals to either side, and a draw potential of up to 4-4. For the Germany vs Saudia Arabia extreme, it is assumed that the most likely draw would be a 0-0, Germany would win by up to 5, and for Saudi to win, it would be a 1-0 upset. Similar linear patterns are then derived and applied. This logic is then simulated with all the actual fixtures from a world cup format.
The "reporting" flag can be set to True in order to see a nice print out of all the games and scores, including group tables. Set to False to just return the Team class instance of the champions.
The usage is as simple as world_cup_simulator(reporting=True).
Have fun! Jamie
GROUP A
RUS 1 - 0 SAU
RUS 1 - 1 EGY
RUS 4 - 4 URU
SAU 1 - 0 EGY
SAU 1 - 2 URU
EGY 0 - 1 URU
Group A Form GF GD Pts
==============================================
Uruguay DWW 7 2 7
Russia WDD 6 1 5
Saudi LWL 2 -1 3
Arabia
Egypt DLL 1 -2 1
GROUP B
POR 1 - 0 SPA
POR 4 - 1 MOR
POR 3 - 1 IRA
SPA 1 - 0 MOR
SPA 1 - 2 IRA
MOR 2 - 1 IRA
Group B Form GF GD Pts
==============================================
Portugal WWW 8 6 9
Spain LWL 2 -1 3
Iran LWL 4 -2 3
Morocco LLW 3 -3 3
GROUP C
FRA 1 - 1 AUS
FRA 0 - 1 PER
FRA 1 - 1 DEN
AUS 0 - 1 PER
AUS 1 - 1 DEN
PER 1 - 0 DEN
Group C Form GF GD Pts
==============================================
Peru WWW 3 3 9
Denmark DDL 2 -1 2
Australi DLD 2 -1 2
a
France DLD 2 -1 2
GROUP D
ARG 2 - 1 ICE
ARG 1 - 1 CRO
ARG 1 - 3 NIG
ICE 0 - 1 CRO
ICE 3 - 2 NIG
CRO 0 - 0 NIG
Group D Form GF GD Pts
==============================================
Croatia DWD 2 1 5
Nigeria WLD 5 1 4
Argentin WDL 4 -1 4
a
Iceland LLW 4 -1 3
GROUP E
BRA 1 - 0 SWI
BRA 3 - 2 COS
BRA 2 - 1 SER
SWI 1 - 1 COS
SWI 3 - 2 SER
COS 0 - 1 SER
Group E Form GF GD Pts
==============================================
Brazil WWW 6 3 9
Switzerl LDW 4 0 4
and
Serbia LLW 4 -1 3
Costa LDL 3 -2 1
Rica
GROUP F
GER 1 - 0 MEX
GER 2 - 1 SWE
GER 2 - 1 SOU
MEX 1 - 2 SWE
MEX 1 - 2 SOU
SWE 0 - 1 SOU
Group F Form GF GD Pts
==============================================
Germany WWW 5 3 9
South LWW 4 1 6
Korea
Sweden LWL 3 -1 3
Mexico LLL 2 -3 0
GROUP G
BEL 2 - 1 PAN
BEL 2 - 3 TUN
BEL 1 - 0 ENG
PAN 1 - 0 TUN
PAN 0 - 1 ENG
TUN 1 - 2 ENG
Group G Form GF GD Pts
==============================================
Belgium WLW 5 1 6
England LWW 3 1 6
Tunisia WLL 4 -1 3
Panama LWL 2 -1 3
GROUP H
POL 0 - 0 SEN
POL 0 - 0 COL
POL 1 - 3 JAP
SEN 1 - 0 COL
SEN 1 - 2 JAP
COL 0 - 0 JAP
Group H Form GF GD Pts
==============================================
Japan WWD 5 3 7
Senegal DWL 2 0 4
Colombia DLD 0 -1 2
Poland DDL 1 -2 2
Round of 16
URU 0 - 1 SPA
PER 2 - 3 NIG
POR 1 - 0 RUS
CRO 1 - 0 DEN
BRA 1 - 0 SOU
BEL 1 - 0 SEN
GER 3 - 2 SWI
JAP 2 - 1 ENG
Quarter-finals
SPA 2 - 3 NIG
BRA 1 - 2 BEL
POR 0 - 1 CRO
GER 1 - 0 JAP
Semi-finals
NIG 0 - 1 BEL
CRO 0 - 1 GER
Final
BEL 1 - 0 GER
Belgium are World Cup 2018 Champions!
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