Hello there,

Can you please document the multiple waves example a bit better?

• If I understand correctly, you separate the two waves to two problems, and each of them is fit separately?

First of all, great work @ECheynet thank you.

I'm trying to test your fitting/simulation on data concerning the Slovak infection. We have 0 recovered, and 0 deaths at the moment, and I'm getting the error message

Error using griddedInterpolant
Interpolation requires at least two sample points in
each dimension.

I'm guessing I have no data other than Suspectibles, therefore the fit is logically impossible and have to wait for more data?

Hello,
Very interesting model and matlab codes. I have to tried to use it for Italy, France and other countries today but it is not so accurate than your examples. Do I need to change some parameters ?
(I have used the example3 with modifying country)
Thanks in advance and congratulations for your job

Hi, Thanks for your nice code
they are amazing, I have a problem with getDatacovid.me
error in this line : opts = delimitedTextImportOptions("NumVariables", Ndays+5);

your mlx file is working but when I wanna run it in m file, the error comes.

can you please help me, I wanna change the model to SEIRD model

Hi Etienne,

First of all, congratulations for your work.

I would like to suggest that the timestep in fit_SEIQRDP() could be 1/24 instead of 1/10.

p.addOptional('dt', 1/24); % time step for the fitting

Same for forecasting.

This way the function will be fitting every hour and time vector will look for readable for humans.

Kind regards.

Error using datetime (line 640)
Could not recognize the date/time format of '09-May-2020'. You can specify a format using the 'InputFormat' parameter. If the date/time text contains day, month, or time zone names in a language foreign to the 'zh_CN' locale, those might not be recognized. You can specify a different locale using the 'Locale' parameter.
Error in getDataCOVID (line 47)
time = datetime(2020,01,22):days(1):datetime(datestr(floor(datenum(now))))-datenum(1);

why do I get in R2017a the error message:
Error using DelimitedTextImportOptions
Class 'DelimitedTextImportOptions' is not an allowed subclass of class 'matlab.io.text.TextImportOptions'.

Fantastic code. Unfortunately I'm a rookie and need help modeling US states. The granularity is not available (from what i can tell) in the time series data but there is data in the daily reports. What adjustments do I need to make to the code to model Illinois (US state), for example?

Hello there @ECheynet ! Thank you for sharing your wonderful repo.

I've been trying to fit your model to the data for Slovakia, where, thanks to the fast and aggressive action, there is a little number of confirmed cases. Right now, there are <500 confirmed infections, 0 deaths, but statistics only show 8 recoveries.

I had no luck trying to find a reasonable fit, I was even spending some time to play around with the initial guesses. Do you think the low number of cases and no data in the "death" set could be the reason for this bad fit? Do you have any suggestions on how to improve this?

I've packed my data and script in a zip too:
SK-COVID-19.ZIP

Here is the fit quality (with data) I get:

Recoveries are a good fit, but infections are not even close.

Dear @ECheynet

Again, not really an issue, more of a discussion.

Are the time-dependent recovery and death rate functions purely your creations, or have you run into something like that in other papers as well? They do make sense as far as your elaborations go, I'm just wondering if these approximations are accepted in literature (not an epidemiologist myself, so have no idea)?

I decided to re-do the model you are using, and I left the time dependent death rate to approach the "dogmatic" SEIR structure a bit more. However, I find that your recovery rate produces more stable fits - which could be (partly) explained by the additional parameter. However, when the "original" model by Peng. et. al. fits, it produces very same results - but it elongates the infectious curve after the peak much more than when using your idea w/ the time dependent recovery rate. Have you compared the two model versions? How does this idea fare with countries on the "other side" of the active infection curve?

Not really the issue of this repo, just wanted to show you @ECheynet how the data from Johns Hopkins can be a little unreliable and funky, especially in the early stages of the infections as here for Slovakia:

(Feel free to close the issue.)