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Update and add the case studies @CWWhitney

Here we need a good overview of the importance and a detailed walk-through on how to develop these (this is something that comes up a lot) cf. recent chicken apple thesis work and the labeling of edges with citations, the review of literature, the process of 'pursuing the surprising' and the idea of generating a model of a decision beforehand but not anchoring people on it.. The iterative process of conceptual model development ('Do-calculus' and 'causal mapping' and other similar tools should be mentioned and used)...

Something is up... Format is wierd

This was an idea generated through the ample application of libation
The thought is that people might be calibrated through system thinking 'Fermi-ization' questions. aka dimensional analysis.
The question for calibrating is one for which we know the answer (as in regular calibration) i
For example 'after the fact what were the agreed top ten issues that most impacted the failure of the merger of company a and b' something we have a good overview of.. Then we can invite people to make a list of the top ten factors and see how that differs from the list that we are aware of... We score them on the ability to get close and have a similar ranking of the list.. This could be much much much better formulated but just an idea...

This is the first step toward getting ready to focus on MC simulations to support the causal models..