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covid19_hospitalizations_death's Introduction

COVID19 hospitalizations/death

This is the project for 2022FALL BST625. We choose the data about COVID19 from 50 states in the U.S. by 2020 and try to find the relationship between hospitalizations and death from many aspects.

Group8 member:

  • Chen, Ye
  • Aaron, Ruby
  • Bader, Alsuliman
  • Alireza, Abdshah
  • Nawaf, Alhazmi

Data Introduction

united_states_covid19_cases_deaths_and_testing_by_state_states only.xlsx

The xlsx file contains the test number and the deanths based on different states.

gini index.xlsx

The file contains gini index of all states in the U.S.

states_beds_per1000.csv

The staffed beds number in 50 states which can reveal the hospital resource of different states.

US govenors party 2020.xlsx

The govenors party can show the difference of the direction of policies.

US state median population.xlsx

This file contains the median age of the U.S.

Data Visualization

We use ggplot to draw several graphs to showing basic descriptive statistic in several graphs. At first, we show the histogram of all independent variable to check the normality. histogram of age histogram of gini index histogram of beds Then we use scatterplots to check the relationships between variables. scatterplot for beds and death rate scatterplot for age and death rate scatterplot for gini index and death rate

Models

First we use simple regression model to try to estimate the relationship bewteen the variables

Regression for Gini Index per Death Rate

Simple regression for gini index

Regression for Age per Death Rate

Simple regression for age

Regression for beds per Death Rate

Simple regression for beds

Finally, we decide to combine them and use a multiple regression for the model. multiple regression residual plot multiple regression predict value The first graph represents the residual for the model and the second graph compares the predicted value and the observed value. The final model results is:

estimates std.error t value p value
Intercepts -932.628 266.253 -3.503 0.00105
Total_beds_per1000 43.917 13.980 3.141 0.00297
medianAge 1.661 4.069 0.408 0.68506
gini index 22.831 4.964 4.599 3.45e-05
governor 28.693 20.146 1.424 0.16126

Summary

Hospital Beds/1000 people and Gini Index were statistically significant, while Median age and Party of the State Governor were not

Limitations

The use of only 50 states may not be enough variation to see differences in certain variables; i.e. median age All State Governors don’t necessarily govern along partisan lines beds/1000 people has a positive relationship with COVID deaths which is an unexpected result

Public Health

Hospital Beds/1000 people may not be a good indicator of healthcare readiness Inequality (gini index) may be a good indicator of access to healthcare Relationships between COVID deaths and other variables are not always true to what you hear in the media or the news

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