- Identify the amount of edge needed to make a sports betting business viable
- Provide a set of tools to work as a basic risk management system
- Edge Requirements
- What is lowest win probability needed to get a non-zero expected log return?
- Answer should be a function of number of bets, and the definition of "non-zero" (answered in BreakEvenAnalysis)
- What is the likelihood we will make money over n periods given an optimal betting strategy?
- What is lowest win probability needed to get a non-zero expected log return?
- Risk Management System:
- Optimize betting given a set of win probabilities
- needs to be able to quanitfy risk aversion
- Optimize betting given a set of win probabilities