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forecasting_net_prophet's Introduction

forecasting_net_prophet

Imports

  1. prophet -For forcasting
  2. pandas - to read csv
  3. holowviews - to plot data

Instalations

using google colab and install moules

Step 1: Find Unusual Patterns in Hourly Google Search Traffic

by reading csv using pandas library then plot search traffic for monthof may to see if there uneven fluctuations in out trend

bokeh_plot (2)

after make a comparesion between sum of search traffic and overall monthly median

Step 2: Mine the Search Traffic Data for Seasonality

plot different views by resample them by monthly, weekly and hourly then groupby them by index with using aggregation mean function bokeh_plot (3)

Step 3: Relate the Search Traffic to Stock Price Patterns

In this section reading stock trend csv file, then plot close price showing bellow
bokeh_plot (4)

after we concate Search Trends with stock closing prices for only 6 month period of 2020 when market merged

bokeh_plot (5) bokeh_plot (6)

founding out both time series indicate a common trend

After we added 3 more columns to our dataframe by making as shift of lag=1, lag=4 to lagged search trends, stock volatility respectivily and percent change of our closing prices to see if there correlation between them bokeh_plot (7) Screenshot 2022-08-31 112318

Step 4: Create a Time Series Model with Prophet

Lastly making prediction of stock prices for the next 80 days by using Prophet on google coleb reading csv dataset, then apply fbprophet model on out dataset after plot it make understanding of our stock behavior Screenshot 2022-08-31 112837 Screenshot 2022-08-31 112903

from last plot we see how search traffic behavios throught a year, week and day

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