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cancer_deathrate_prediction's Introduction

Multiple linear regression and descision tree

Advanced statistic and machine learning

Prediction of the cancer death rate.

This work uses data aggregated from a number of sources including the American Community Survey census.gov, clinicaltrials.gov, and cancer.gov ๐Ÿฅ. The dataset contains 3048 datapoints and 33 variables.

๐Ÿšฉ In this project we build and compared several models to predict the "TARGET_deathRate". We tested ordinary least square (OLS) regression, CART and Random Forest algorithms. We also used VSURF for variable selection.

Models were compared using the root mean squared error (RMSE):

Model RMSE
OLS full dataset (numericals) 19.259
OLS without outliers 15.174
Step default parameters 15.173
Step forward or backward 15.165
LASSO 15.248
OLS on LASSO selected features 15.254
CART final tree 17.598
CART + VSURF final tree 17.861
Random Forest 14.738

โšช We condlude that the best model to predict "TARGET_deathRate" is Random Forest followed by step method forward or backward.

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