Lecture on forecasting about sismid HOT 8 CLOSED

I'm fine keeping it short. Would be great if we could keep it on Day 2 for cohesion.

from sismid.

I agree that Day 2 would be better, but I was thinking that after student presentations on Day 3 could also work. Thinking of it as a forward looking lecture.

from sismid.

I drafted a few slides for the forecasting lecture. The material can get dense fast. What do you think?

from sismid.

Looks good. Though I might aim to be more clear on the standard timeseries approaches to forecasting epidemic dynamics. I think @ntncmch's Ebola work is the best example I can think of this:

http://ntncmch.github.io/ebola/weekly_forecast.html

from sismid.

(Is there a standard? I should look for review papers too.) The Ebola
example will make a good warm-up for the Yang model.

On Thursday, July 21, 2016, Trevor Bedford [email protected] wrote:

Looks good. Though I might aim to be more clear on the standard timeseries
approaches to forecasting epidemic dynamics. I think @ntncmch
https://github.com/ntncmch's Ebola work is the best example I can think
of this:

http://ntncmch.github.io/ebola/weekly_forecast.html

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Sarah Cobey, PhD
Assistant Professor
Ecology & Evolution
University of Chicago

(617) 756-7204 (cell)
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from sismid.

Have you seen a published version of that work anywhere? I only see the arXiv manuscript. The general approach seems similar to work by Yang et al.

from sismid.

I don't think there's a publication. I think this is the software they'll using:

https://github.com/StateSpaceModels/ssm

which I've glanced through but haven't actually tried to use. I was suggesting this as it's an obviously useful application to public health surveillance.

(Is there a standard? I should look for review papers too.)

I don't think super standard, but it seems common to use either ARIMA type auto regressive models or to do a mechanistic timeseries fit. Not really my expertise.

from sismid.

I think this is looking pretty good. Going to close the issue. More attention could be paid of course.

from sismid.