ACTC Revenue Estimation Question about tax-calculator HOT 3 CLOSED

Hi @gmfenton, I'm not sure why Tax-Calculator gives a $0 impact, but just as another benchmark, PolicyEngine estimates that raising the ACTC from $1,600 to $2,000 in 2023 would cost about $800 million in 2023. TPC's 2023 estimate of $2.8 billion may exceed this in part if they assumed a $1,500 baseline ACTC for 2023, and also because PolicyEngine currently uses the CPS rather than the PUF.

Have you examined a sample household with Tax-Calculator? Sometimes that can help diagnose issues; e.g., here's how PolicyEngine shows it affecting a single parent of one:

from tax-calculator.

@gmfenton I think the issues here is just how you are writing your reform. If you want to change the ACTC_c parameter for two different ranges of years, you need to do that in the same dictionary. e.g., see the specification of the json string in the code below:

import taxcalc as tc
recs = tc.Records() 
pol = tc.Policy() 
calc1 = tc.Calculator(policy=pol, records=recs) 

# Create an instance of the calculator class for reform policy 
json_str = '{"ACTC_c": {"2023": 2000, "2026": 1000}}'
reform = tc.Policy.read_json_reform(json_str)
pol.implement_reform(reform) 
calc2 = tc.Calculator(policy=pol, records=recs) 

# Calculate difference in tax revenue for year Y
for Y in range(2023, 2032):
    CY = Y
    calc1.advance_to_year(CY) 
    calc2.advance_to_year(CY) 
    calc1.calc_all() 
    calc2.calc_all() 
    iitax_rev1 = calc1.weighted_total('iitax') 
    iitax_rev2 = calc2.weighted_total('iitax') 
    diff = iitax_rev2-iitax_rev1 
    print(f'{CY}_reform_tax_rev= ${diff:,.0f}') 

Which uses the CPS file and gives results similar to what you cite from TPC (around $2 billion per year):

2023_reform_tax_rev= $-1,804,884,226
2024_reform_tax_rev= $-1,937,256,092
2025_reform_tax_rev= $-2,020,715,288
2026_reform_tax_rev= $0
2027_reform_tax_rev= $0
2028_reform_tax_rev= $0
2029_reform_tax_rev= $0
2030_reform_tax_rev= $0
2031_reform_tax_rev= $0

from tax-calculator.

Thank you @MaxGhenis and @jdebacker for your quick responses!

Yes Jason, including the separate year ranges in the same dictionary fixed it, much appreciated.

from tax-calculator.