Comments (4)
Severity is basically 1 minus the percentile from climatology, so your time series will always map from 0-1 (CDF). If the climatology is short, some of your "dry" values will be classified as "wet" since everything's relative to the sample you have (i.e. climatology). I suspect that is what's going on here. Averaging monthly will remove some of that variability, but you will still have the same fundamental problem. Assuming that you have a short climatology, I suggest generating a longer (20-30 year) baseline simulation and then re-running.
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OK thanks for your explanation.
How does this 20-30 year "baseline simulation" work? I can run a nowcast, then a forecast, and the latter will incorporate the former's drought index mean/std/skew/kurtosis into its calculations? CHIRPS and NCEP go back to 1985 in the DB. How do I use this to our benefit for forecasts? Initialization file only contains information on current soil state, right? Do I just run a nowcast first in the same schema?
from rheas.
You can run a nowcast for a long enough time period up to the initialization date for your forecasts. So the forecast severity will utilize the previous run as the climatology.
from rheas.
Cool, didn't know it had a memory like that... will run a 30-year for the entire region over the weekend.
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