Issue with calculate week about ac-nh-turnip-prices HOT 29 CLOSED

Is it your first week buying turnips?

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We have seen some reports from others that the algorithm is possibly calculating values incorrectly. This still needs to be investigated further and additional examples are greatly appreciated!

There appears to be a few things happening here.

If we assume that this was not your first week buying, then having a sell price of 147 on Monday PM is not possible (based on the predictions model, I mean). So, either this is your first week, or the predictions model is not working.

If this is your first week, then we still have a problem once we get to Wednesday AM, where the predictions model suggests your sell price could not be lower than 146 - your value was 99 though.

In both situations, whether first week or not, there appears to be a calculation issue (this of course is assuming your values are 100% correct, and not possibly typo'd or invalid)

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I have seen this as well.

It is the Wednesday PM price which breaks things.

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Thanks for sharing. The more examples people provide, the more information we'll have to hunt down the cause.

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For me, it is the Tuesday PM price input that broke the calculator.

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I'm also experiencing this. If you remove the 72 from Wednesday AM it works. I noticed that 71 works, so I'm wondering if there is an off by 1 error. This is not the first week of buying turnips (second if it means anything, v1.1.4a)

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I believe this other web app is using similar methods. They have an issue open right now discussing off by one/precision issues: elxris/Turnip-Calculator#3

May be worth following.

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I've been keeping tabs on that, and comparing results between this app and their app - I have seen several situations where the elxris app produces a prediction, where this one cannot.

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It's worth noting that JavaScript rounds float values differently than C++ does, so there may not be anything that anyone can do to properly address that. Frankly, every language can potentially have slight variations in their floating point math...

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Yes, very true. WebAssembly might be a good solution here. Or, running the analysis on a server (but that costs more $$$ 😋) .

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Neither is likely, I don't think. My understanding is the maintainer would like to keep this lightweight and without a back end. Also, Web Assembly would require a complete rewrite of the entire app, so it's essentially a new project.

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Yeah, anything involving a backend is too heavyweight for me

How far out are we anyway.. I'm half wondering whether to just add a bell of fudge factor either way if needed to find a prediction. Is that good enough?

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Tough to say this point. Some of the examples show a variance in the 10s or greater, which does suggest a calculation issue more than a rounding issue.

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Speaking of WebAssembly, someone did make this. But it would still require a significant rewrite to incorporate.

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Monday PM broke for me. (Not sure if additional examples are helping at this point... but I thought I would share.

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Monday PM broke for me. (Not sure if additional examples are helping at this point... but I thought I would share.

What were all your values? The example is only beneficial if we can use it to replicate (need your buy price at least)

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Here you go. Changing the probability of the previous week doesn't affect anything in this case.

from ac-nh-turnip-prices.

Here you go. Changing the probability of the previous week doesn't affect anything in this case.

Thanks! It's possible this could be a rounding issue. The lower bounds from the prediction for Monday PM is 72 but you got a 71. Do you happen to know what the rest of your week looked like?

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Yep:

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Thanks again. More than just the Monday PM value appears to be outside the ranges of the prediction. This is helpful.

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I just posted one with incorrect screen shots, so here is the correction:
I have gotten this issue today with my Thursday AM value
The value Nook quoted was 62, however put into the field it breaks the predition, correct it to 61 and it works, seems to be similar to the issues above, but here's one more for the dataset.

Not Working

Working

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First week, purchased at 89
Mon am 89. Mon pm 130
Tues am 109. Tues pm 142
Wed am 151. Wed pm 156
Thur am 154. Thur pm 82.
It broke and did the all 999 starting wed am

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Inputting the Thurs PM broke the calculator :/

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Today the Calc broke 💔 for me, too. (same for https://elxris.github.io/Turnip-Calculator/)
No first timer. :-)

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More data if it helps. Predicted range for Friday AM was 91-143, actual price is 172. Tested on this tool, https://github.com/drfuzzyness/google-sheets-stalk-market-calculator v1.3, and https://elxris.github.io/Turnip-Calculator/ getting the same results.

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Tuesday PM broke mine

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Tuesday PM broke mine
@Fae-ok what was your Tuesday PM value?

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I have what looks like to be the same issue. It broke with Monday's values but I included a screenshot with the values from today just in case

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So with the recent changes in #93 it seems to break with this valid data:
https://turnipprophet.io/?prices=104.95.91.124.201

Buy price 104
mam - 95
mpm - 91
tam - 124
tpm - 201

You need to delete both mpm and tam to get it to show anything, or adjust the buy price up 1

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