Budget optimization: optimized KPI is lower than pre opt KPI about lightweight_mmm HOT 4 CLOSED

@edgar-mh Thanks for opening this one!

Optimiser is always tricky as the problem itself is not easy and a lot of factors play in. Let's try to find out what is going on in your case.

Just a few follow up questions to try to rule out some things:

• Can you confirm the sum of "previous_budget_allocation" and sum of solution.x match?
• All your prices are ones since you are using spend, right?
• If your media data has a ton of variance, the bounds are taken from +-X% from the mean, if that mean +X% does not reach the optimal point on your best performing channels maybe its being capped there.

Optimisers can always get somewhat stuck on a local optima but giving the numbers you showed I think this is not the case here. Im also guessing you have run it a handful times with similar results.

Typo fixing PR's are more than welcome :)

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Hi Pablo,

Thank you so much for the swift reply!

I can confirm the pre and post budgets match, I've had a few cases where those weren't in line previously 😄
The second point was spot on!
After some time debugging a previous problem, I've changed the prices to unscaled_costs.sum() / media_data.sum(axis=0) and forgot to change it back. Returning an array of ones for each media channel solved the issue.

Thank you so much for pointing me in the right direction.

I'll open that PR, but probably only on Monday since it's already a bit late for me 😅

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Ok, I had a bit more time so I did create a new local branch and tried to push, but couldn't:

19:40:37.004: [lightweight_mmm] git -c credential.helper= -c core.quotepath=false -c log.showSignature=false checkout -b fix_typos HEAD --
M	lightweight_mmm/plot.py
Switched to a new branch 'fix_typos'
19:42:05.490: [lightweight_mmm] git -c credential.helper= -c core.quotepath=false -c log.showSignature=false add --ignore-errors -A -f -- lightweight_mmm/plot.py
19:42:05.497: [lightweight_mmm] git -c credential.helper= -c core.quotepath=false -c log.showSignature=false commit -F /tmp/git-commit-msg-.txt --
[fix_typos 5225569] chore: fix typos in plot.py
 1 file changed, 16 insertions(+), 16 deletions(-)
19:42:09.064: [lightweight_mmm] git -c credential.helper= -c core.quotepath=false -c log.showSignature=false push --progress --porcelain origin refs/heads/fix_typos:refs/heads/fix_typos --set-upstream
remote: Permission to google/lightweight_mmm.git denied to edgar-mh.
fatal: unable to access 'https://github.com/google/lightweight_mmm.git/': The requested URL returned error: 403

Will look into this on Monday, but I'm assuming the way I'm using to contribute to private repos is totally different than that for public repos 😅

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You can check out Contributing.md for more info.

Will close this one for now but feel free to re-open.

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