Comments (3)
We don't have great reason to hope for seasonality (in year 1--i think maybe we do expect it in subsequent years) but want to include sliders so we can play out scenarios. To set defaults could use:
For northern temperate regions:
ε seasonal forcing: uniform .25-.75
θ peak transmissibility: normal peak at 0; sd .1
taken from the bullet points on page five of neher et al.
Mike
Neher_seasonality.pdf
from seir_covid19_dev.
epsilon<-.5
theta<-.1
in model:
seasonality<- (1 + epsilon * cos(2pi(t-theta)))
b1<-b1seasonality
b2<-b2seasonality
b3<-b3*seasonality
from seir_covid19_dev.
There is now a script to runSpreadSeason.R that runs the dynamics with seasonal variation in the Beta values (same for all Betas). Note that time is in days so the correct function is:
(1 + seas.ampcos(2pi*(t-seas.phase)/365))
Seasonality affects all Beta values equally right now
from seir_covid19_dev.
Related Issues (8)
- Age structured model HOT 2
- reexamine mass action and density dependent transmission
- Intervention Compliance
- Allow deaths to increase when capacity is exceeded
- Include pre-sympomatic transmission + asymptomatic infection HOT 1
- Pull in country specific data HOT 1
- Calibrate Beta based on observed r HOT 1
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